I started with a  lay of Man City at home to Liverpool on Monday night. I wasn’t so much confident that Liverpool could or would win the game but I really felt that they could start fast and get City on the back foot. I felt that the match would be much tighter than the odds suggested. Unfortunately I was to end up trapped in what I call a “no-escape scenario”. These are the killers where the first thing that happens is against you and the balance doesn’t get redressed as your money evaporates. Even worse, I had quite a big play on this game. I laid Man City at 1.9 risking a stonking £150. The game began as I expected and Liverpool were dominating the play without making clear chances. At 40 minutes I could have taken a profit. However, I made a mistake that I have made twice this week … I waited for half time. The reason I did this was because I was watching the match and it was one-way traffic. I need to think about this because if I hadn’t been watching I may well have gotten out after half an hour or so and made thirty quid. However, I decided to hang on until HT because it seemed that it would be nil nil and, if there was to be a goal, Liverpool would score it. Then, just before half-time, Liverpool made a catastrophic error in defence and it was 1-0. Game over.

Analysing this game is interesting. I believe that Liverpool would have been one or two goals up by the half hour against most teams in Europe given this performance. But they couldn’t find that killer pass to turn dominance into a goal. I think that this was less due to Liverpool limitations and more down to the superb resilience of the Manchester City team. In particular, Kompany and Hart were dominant and Liverpool could not break through. It won’t be the same for Liverpool at Spurs this weekend and I expect them to take the lead and probably win. I’ll be laying Spurs. I think Manchester City showed the character they will need when they have to survive pressure in the Champions League cauldrons. They may finally go well in that competition. They keys are that Hart maintains his form and Kompany maintains his fitness.

Despite their scintillating first 40 minutes, there was an aspect of the Liverpool performance that was less encouraging. In the second half they were listless and seemed to lack belief. It felt like they didn’t think that they could score or win once they had gone behind. This may be where the lack of Suarez is most keenly felt. It is also why I think the signing of Balotelli is a masterstroke. Liverpool lacked fire, character and personality in that second half and I think Balotelli will help with this.

So, I went into Tuesday in recovery mode. In the end it took me 6 straight profitable games to recover the Liverpool ton-and-a-half but I managed it. The first big chunk came with Celtic. I was convinced that they had stolen the draw in the first leg and I couldn’t get the fact that they had shipped 6 against a Polish side out of my mind. I laid Celtic for £60 at 1.57 and backed Maribor (£4 at 7.2). When the goal came, I was out for a profit of £66.61. So far, so good.

It was what else was happening while Celtic were losing that is most interesting. I laid Derby as I thought they were too short at home to free scoring Charlton (£50 at 1.69). I also laid Sheffield Wednesday (£28 at 4.0). Wednesday had made a few team changes and I didn’t think they could win. The beauty of these plays is that both teams won but I made a profit. I got out of both games on 75 mins (2 mins before Wednesday were awarded the winning penalty). I made £38 across both games. So that was £103 of my Liverpool money back!

On Wednesday I managed another 3 from 3. I backed Sunderland (£20 at 2.1) to win at Birmingham (won 3-0). I laid Leeds at Bradford (a game I watched). Leeds were absolutely terrible and I noted tidy football from Bradford. Bradford won 2-1 although I was sweating when Leeds took the lead.I laid Leeds for £33 at 3.1. I wasn’t expecting to be in until 90minutes but again (maybe because I was watching) I stayed in the play until the bitter end.

I also thought that Bilbao v Napoli would be very tight and that there was mileage in backing the draw. I backed this (£50 at 3.45) and took a £14 profit at half time when the score was nil nil. Bilbao ran out winners in the end but the money was safe. This is the real art … making money out of games where the end result is something other than the one you ‘backed’. I didn’t care about the result of this game – I just needed it to be tight in the first half and it was.

Across Wednesday’s 3 games I made a total of £70 meaning that the LFC debacle was recovered and I was back in profit for the season as I had been at the start of the week.

Then, last night, I laid Spurs. A £55 lay at 1.2 was cheap as chips.  I was hoping that the Cypriots could keep it tight in the early exchanges. It was a cheap play (risking £13) and it nearly came off once Spurs had missed an early penalty. I was watching … and waiting for half time. I wanted to get out at nil nil and benefit from the time decay.  Then, right on the stroke of HT …

1-0 to Spurs. Thirteen quid gone west. I need to think about this because I’m getting stung between 41-45 minutes. I may tweak my get-out strategy. I like to be out and relaxing in the second half anyway ….

@eltav

I decided not to bore anyone (or myself) by describing the rest of my World Cup trades. However, I pretty much continued as I had started – although it did get harder. I finished with a nice lay on Germany in the final. To be honest I thought that Argentina would turn them over and lift the trophy but the draw at 90 minutes was all I needed.

Then I had to wait …

I wanted to try and bring the same ideas and principles to bear on club football. I was impatient to get started but I made the decision not to get involved in any pre-season games. These are lotteries and it was nice to forget about football and let summer fill the mind with cricket and holidays. I then further reasoned that I shouldn’t get involved in League Cup games which are hardly any more predictable than a friendly. It’s important to know that the participants in the event you want to bet on are all trying their hardest. As many will know, this cannot be assumed with horse-racing and it continually queers the pitch. The League Cup is similar because teams on the field may be trying but some managers are, at best, neutral in their desire to stay in that competition.

So I waited for the league stuff. Well, actually, I nearly didn’t. I decided to lay Bayern Munich against Dortmund in the German version of the charity shield last week. This was to be the beginning of my brave new trading career. However, having made this decision I failed to notice that the game was kicking off early. By the time I logged on it was 1-0 to Dortmund. At that point I would have been trading out and counting the money. Still, it was good to know that I had gotten it right.

Week 1 – Saturday

If I had written this blog a day earlier I could have been crowing about my ‘reading’ of that game in Germany and an umblemished six out of six profit haul in the English leagues. Last week (week 2 of the Football League) I really wanted to get involved. However, I was travelling to Sheffield to watch the Owls play Derby so I knew that whatever my opening position was, I would be stuck with it. I knew I wouldn’t have the wifi or the 3G at Hillsborough to do anything in-running. So I picked 3 teams that I thought were a low price but would not win. I laid them and went off to Sheffield. The 3 I laid were Sheffield Wednesday (my team) who had started the season with a superb win at Brighton. I’d read match reports that suggested Wednesday had not been the better side in that game, but had scored and held on. I thought Derby were likely to bring too much class for the Owls to cope with and that they would be returning to the Midlands with at least a point. Actual Result 0-0. Profit £20

In the EPL I laid Leicester who I thought would be giving Everton a tough game but who, ultimately, would not be able to beat them. The fact that Leicester were at home meant the price was one at which I could get involved. Result 2-2. Profit £17

And … I laid Manchester United. My view is that Man U have a squad stuffed with ordinary players and that it will take some weeks for LVG to sort things out. I thought that Swansea would come with a well organised team who could continue smoothly from last year and give Manchester United a runaround. I didn’t know if they could win but I thought they wouldn’t lose.  I particularly liked the fact that Swansea had re-signed their best player of 2 seasons ago from Spurs. It felt great, in the event, when he scored the winner. Result 1-2. Profit £20

So, day 1 went well.  3 matches, 3 lays, 3 wins for me. But I hadn’t done what I’d been doing in the World Cup yet …

Week 1 – Midweek

I decided to get involved with 3 games again. I laid Middlesbrough who were going to Bolton. Boro had lost at a very poor Leeds the week before. I thought that Boro could not win this game although it was likely to be low quality and low-scoring.  I laid Boro for £40 at 2.74. In the event I was wrong about this match as Boro won 2-1. However Bolton had taken the lead in the first half and I immediately got out, taking a profit of £23.40.

I had seen Derby in the flesh the week before. I thought that they were short of goals and would struggle to come away from Charlton with a win. So I laid Derby for £40 at 2.24. I was right about this match (Charlton won) and wrong (Derby scored twice). However, Charton scored first and I got out before the first Derby equaliser (Backing Derby £20.46 at 4.4), taking a profit of £19.54.

The third game I chose was Arsenal who were a short price away at Besiktas. I thought that Arsenal would probably win but it would be a tough tie. However, I feared an early Arsenal goal so laid them for just £15  at 1.71. I got out when it was 0-0 at half-time as this was my target. I took a profit of £6. I could have waited but the half-time exit (if green) was my pre-match plan.

So that was 6 games in profit. A pleasing start – especially as it shows that what I was doing in the World Cup can be applied anywhere. There are one or two rules to follow and a few different scenarios – including the ‘done-your-dough’ no escape ones! I plan to carry on with this trading throughout the season and nail down my strategies and rules. I will increase stakes (and risk) as I develop confidence – and also where the market seems to offer more opportunity. I don’t plan to blog this trading weekly but I will report occasionally. If anyone wants to discuss what I’m doing or what they are doing, please tweet me @elTav

I would be delighted to share ideas.

Oh – and about last night. It was half-time in the Fulham game and Wolves were 1-0 up. I wasn’t involved. I listened to the first 2 minutes of the second half on the radio. I had a strong feeling that this game was heading for a draw. I laid Wolves (£50 at 1.53). The lack of any further goal meant that this rash play cost me an annoying £25.

Discipline is the key!

@elTav