I decided not to bore anyone (or myself) by describing the rest of my World Cup trades. However, I pretty much continued as I had started – although it did get harder. I finished with a nice lay on Germany in the final. To be honest I thought that Argentina would turn them over and lift the trophy but the draw at 90 minutes was all I needed.

Then I had to wait …

I wanted to try and bring the same ideas and principles to bear on club football. I was impatient to get started but I made the decision not to get involved in any pre-season games. These are lotteries and it was nice to forget about football and let summer fill the mind with cricket and holidays. I then further reasoned that I shouldn’t get involved in League Cup games which are hardly any more predictable than a friendly. It’s important to know that the participants in the event you want to bet on are all trying their hardest. As many will know, this cannot be assumed with horse-racing and it continually queers the pitch. The League Cup is similar because teams on the field may be trying but some managers are, at best, neutral in their desire to stay in that competition.

So I waited for the league stuff. Well, actually, I nearly didn’t. I decided to lay Bayern Munich against Dortmund in the German version of the charity shield last week. This was to be the beginning of my brave new trading career. However, having made this decision I failed to notice that the game was kicking off early. By the time I logged on it was 1-0 to Dortmund. At that point I would have been trading out and counting the money. Still, it was good to know that I had gotten it right.

Week 1 – Saturday

If I had written this blog a day earlier I could have been crowing about my ‘reading’ of that game in Germany and an umblemished six out of six profit haul in the English leagues. Last week (week 2 of the Football League) I really wanted to get involved. However, I was travelling to Sheffield to watch the Owls play Derby so I knew that whatever my opening position was, I would be stuck with it. I knew I wouldn’t have the wifi or the 3G at Hillsborough to do anything in-running. So I picked 3 teams that I thought were a low price but would not win. I laid them and went off to Sheffield. The 3 I laid were Sheffield Wednesday (my team) who had started the season with a superb win at Brighton. I’d read match reports that suggested Wednesday had not been the better side in that game, but had scored and held on. I thought Derby were likely to bring too much class for the Owls to cope with and that they would be returning to the Midlands with at least a point. Actual Result 0-0. Profit £20

In the EPL I laid Leicester who I thought would be giving Everton a tough game but who, ultimately, would not be able to beat them. The fact that Leicester were at home meant the price was one at which I could get involved. Result 2-2. Profit £17

And … I laid Manchester United. My view is that Man U have a squad stuffed with ordinary players and that it will take some weeks for LVG to sort things out. I thought that Swansea would come with a well organised team who could continue smoothly from last year and give Manchester United a runaround. I didn’t know if they could win but I thought they wouldn’t lose.  I particularly liked the fact that Swansea had re-signed their best player of 2 seasons ago from Spurs. It felt great, in the event, when he scored the winner. Result 1-2. Profit £20

So, day 1 went well.  3 matches, 3 lays, 3 wins for me. But I hadn’t done what I’d been doing in the World Cup yet …

Week 1 – Midweek

I decided to get involved with 3 games again. I laid Middlesbrough who were going to Bolton. Boro had lost at a very poor Leeds the week before. I thought that Boro could not win this game although it was likely to be low quality and low-scoring.  I laid Boro for £40 at 2.74. In the event I was wrong about this match as Boro won 2-1. However Bolton had taken the lead in the first half and I immediately got out, taking a profit of £23.40.

I had seen Derby in the flesh the week before. I thought that they were short of goals and would struggle to come away from Charlton with a win. So I laid Derby for £40 at 2.24. I was right about this match (Charlton won) and wrong (Derby scored twice). However, Charton scored first and I got out before the first Derby equaliser (Backing Derby £20.46 at 4.4), taking a profit of £19.54.

The third game I chose was Arsenal who were a short price away at Besiktas. I thought that Arsenal would probably win but it would be a tough tie. However, I feared an early Arsenal goal so laid them for just £15  at 1.71. I got out when it was 0-0 at half-time as this was my target. I took a profit of £6. I could have waited but the half-time exit (if green) was my pre-match plan.

So that was 6 games in profit. A pleasing start – especially as it shows that what I was doing in the World Cup can be applied anywhere. There are one or two rules to follow and a few different scenarios – including the ‘done-your-dough’ no escape ones! I plan to carry on with this trading throughout the season and nail down my strategies and rules. I will increase stakes (and risk) as I develop confidence – and also where the market seems to offer more opportunity. I don’t plan to blog this trading weekly but I will report occasionally. If anyone wants to discuss what I’m doing or what they are doing, please tweet me @elTav

I would be delighted to share ideas.

Oh – and about last night. It was half-time in the Fulham game and Wolves were 1-0 up. I wasn’t involved. I listened to the first 2 minutes of the second half on the radio. I had a strong feeling that this game was heading for a draw. I laid Wolves (£50 at 1.53). The lack of any further goal meant that this rash play cost me an annoying £25.

Discipline is the key!

@elTav