I started with a  lay of Man City at home to Liverpool on Monday night. I wasn’t so much confident that Liverpool could or would win the game but I really felt that they could start fast and get City on the back foot. I felt that the match would be much tighter than the odds suggested. Unfortunately I was to end up trapped in what I call a “no-escape scenario”. These are the killers where the first thing that happens is against you and the balance doesn’t get redressed as your money evaporates. Even worse, I had quite a big play on this game. I laid Man City at 1.9 risking a stonking £150. The game began as I expected and Liverpool were dominating the play without making clear chances. At 40 minutes I could have taken a profit. However, I made a mistake that I have made twice this week … I waited for half time. The reason I did this was because I was watching the match and it was one-way traffic. I need to think about this because if I hadn’t been watching I may well have gotten out after half an hour or so and made thirty quid. However, I decided to hang on until HT because it seemed that it would be nil nil and, if there was to be a goal, Liverpool would score it. Then, just before half-time, Liverpool made a catastrophic error in defence and it was 1-0. Game over.

Analysing this game is interesting. I believe that Liverpool would have been one or two goals up by the half hour against most teams in Europe given this performance. But they couldn’t find that killer pass to turn dominance into a goal. I think that this was less due to Liverpool limitations and more down to the superb resilience of the Manchester City team. In particular, Kompany and Hart were dominant and Liverpool could not break through. It won’t be the same for Liverpool at Spurs this weekend and I expect them to take the lead and probably win. I’ll be laying Spurs. I think Manchester City showed the character they will need when they have to survive pressure in the Champions League cauldrons. They may finally go well in that competition. They keys are that Hart maintains his form and Kompany maintains his fitness.

Despite their scintillating first 40 minutes, there was an aspect of the Liverpool performance that was less encouraging. In the second half they were listless and seemed to lack belief. It felt like they didn’t think that they could score or win once they had gone behind. This may be where the lack of Suarez is most keenly felt. It is also why I think the signing of Balotelli is a masterstroke. Liverpool lacked fire, character and personality in that second half and I think Balotelli will help with this.

So, I went into Tuesday in recovery mode. In the end it took me 6 straight profitable games to recover the Liverpool ton-and-a-half but I managed it. The first big chunk came with Celtic. I was convinced that they had stolen the draw in the first leg and I couldn’t get the fact that they had shipped 6 against a Polish side out of my mind. I laid Celtic for £60 at 1.57 and backed Maribor (£4 at 7.2). When the goal came, I was out for a profit of £66.61. So far, so good.

It was what else was happening while Celtic were losing that is most interesting. I laid Derby as I thought they were too short at home to free scoring Charlton (£50 at 1.69). I also laid Sheffield Wednesday (£28 at 4.0). Wednesday had made a few team changes and I didn’t think they could win. The beauty of these plays is that both teams won but I made a profit. I got out of both games on 75 mins (2 mins before Wednesday were awarded the winning penalty). I made £38 across both games. So that was £103 of my Liverpool money back!

On Wednesday I managed another 3 from 3. I backed Sunderland (£20 at 2.1) to win at Birmingham (won 3-0). I laid Leeds at Bradford (a game I watched). Leeds were absolutely terrible and I noted tidy football from Bradford. Bradford won 2-1 although I was sweating when Leeds took the lead.I laid Leeds for £33 at 3.1. I wasn’t expecting to be in until 90minutes but again (maybe because I was watching) I stayed in the play until the bitter end.

I also thought that Bilbao v Napoli would be very tight and that there was mileage in backing the draw. I backed this (£50 at 3.45) and took a £14 profit at half time when the score was nil nil. Bilbao ran out winners in the end but the money was safe. This is the real art … making money out of games where the end result is something other than the one you ‘backed’. I didn’t care about the result of this game – I just needed it to be tight in the first half and it was.

Across Wednesday’s 3 games I made a total of £70 meaning that the LFC debacle was recovered and I was back in profit for the season as I had been at the start of the week.

Then, last night, I laid Spurs. A £55 lay at 1.2 was cheap as chips.  I was hoping that the Cypriots could keep it tight in the early exchanges. It was a cheap play (risking £13) and it nearly came off once Spurs had missed an early penalty. I was watching … and waiting for half time. I wanted to get out at nil nil and benefit from the time decay.  Then, right on the stroke of HT …

1-0 to Spurs. Thirteen quid gone west. I need to think about this because I’m getting stung between 41-45 minutes. I may tweak my get-out strategy. I like to be out and relaxing in the second half anyway ….

@eltav