I wanted to record what happened last night while it was fresh in my memory and, as usual, so I can learn from it. For me it was an interesting little night on Betdaq.
It wasn’t a very good night for me overall. Most of the first half goals in England seemed to go against me (though things turned round in some games after HT). If Tranmere had held on to a late 2-0 lead rather than losing 3-2 I could have even showed a slight profit in England. Not to worry.

It’s the Man City v Barca game that I want to write about because of how it went and how I managed to escape. I looked at the game in the afternoon and really couldn’t see an angle in it. Essentially, I had no idea what was going to happen. I think this Barca side isn’t half of what Pep’s side was but it does have the 3 terrifying forwards. I thought City might blow Barca away with Aguero back to fitness and form. Equally, I thought Messi could easily inspire a good night for Barca. Not rocket science. In the end I came down to one fact; Man City playing at home, priced at 3/1 … I had to have some. So I put £100 on Man City to win £300. I was comfortable with this on a night where I had a good few quid at play in the English Leagues. I thought the game would be close enough for me to get out at some stage if necessary.

In the event, Man City were not going to be blowing anyone away last night. They were pedestrian in the first half. I thought they had stage fright – memories of last season v Barca overwhelmed them. The crowd were quiet and Barca went 1 nil up. City offered no tempo or real threat.

At 1-0 I made a mistake. When I have worked out what I think will happen in a match, I don’t fear the first goal going against me if it’s early. If I have decided a team will win then I am quite happy to accept that they may not keep a clean sheet. So I often pile more money on when the team is a goal down. Often as not, I’m right and it turns round with me winning much more than I would have originally. Even if the team you are backing merely equalises the market corrects and all that extra punt facilitates a nice cash out position – especially if the team you are supporting started out as favs.

On this occasion City went a goal down and I backed them at 8-1. I shouldn’t have. That is not just in retrospect but because normal conditions didn’t apply. I hadn’t originally backed City out of a conviction that they would win but just as a response to the prices. There was no reason to go piling more on. But City, at home, a goal down early at 8/1? Gimme some I said. MISTAKE.

Then, City were statuesque as the Barca players moved and Suarez made it 2 nil. I was in a hole. At half time I stood to lose £200 if City didn’t win. The draw was against me big style … and even a draw looked unlikely.

How to get out? What is interesting is that I decided that the only way out was to pile MORE money into the City side of the market – by laying the pants off Barca at 1.08. This, I did. I laid Barca for over £1300 at 1.08 meaning that the loss if Barca won would be increased to an eye-watering £300+ but the draw would earn me over £1000. What was I playing at??

Well, I wasn’t happy to sit on a £200 loss without trying to take evasive action. The gamble here was that City could not possibly be as bad in the second half and that they would score next. As long as that goal came before around 75 minutes and City were on the front foot, the odds would swing wildly towards the draw and I would get out. And that’s exactly what happened.

Aguero scored a great goal, the odds spun like a fruit machine and for one beautiful moment I could cash out on a £24 loss. Quite remarkable. For a brief moment I thought; “imagine if City get another” (eyeing the big green draw) but good sense prevailed and I cashed out.
A couple of minutes later City got a red card and the odds careered back away from me. Phew!

So, in summary, I stood to lose £200 on a Barca win and Barca were 2 nil up. By increasing that risk to £300 I was able to escape with a £24 loss despite City never even equalising.

Interesting I thought.