Leeds and Wigan lays = both of these were stacked towards the away win so that although the draw meant profit the away win would have yielded a fair bit more.  Wigan and Leeds both drew but I cashed out when they were losing 1-0 with less than 10 minutes to go . I did exactly the same re Villa (who I had backed to win). So there are 3 games there where the team I favoured was 1-0 up late on but none of them actually won. If I’d have left the games to run to FT I’d have bombed at Villa Park (like their keeper) and seen a much reduced return at Wigan and Leeds. I also cashed out of Tranmere late on (this was a back bet and they were also winning just one nil which ended up being the FT).

My cashout strategy is that I will never let a game go to FT if a single goal can dramatically reduce my profit (or turn it into a loss). When stakes are larger (in lay bets) I’m using that larger stake to attract a return, not to win every penny available by hanging on for winners or waiting for the final whistle. As a rule I’m looking for 50% of the maximum return and then I’m away and gone.The bigger play is always ‘seed money’ not a full-on punt.

The City lay and the Sheffield Wednesday / MK bets last night were failures. In the end I finished up with almost exactly what I had laid out in total across accas and singles and the bank survives to have another go. If I hadn’t cashed out of the 4 x 1-nils I’d have been maybe a hundred down…

I’m feeling good about my pre-season blog after a week or two (early days). I warned myself in writing not to lay ManU then I went and did it and lost! Serves me right. I thought the absence of Smalling might just allow a bit of chaos to remain in defence but, in the end, Bournemouth were largely outclassed. I thought a few teams didn’t look fit/sharp at the weekend (Leicester and Arsenal among them) which is odd but I guess the whirlwind of Euros and exotic tours allied to transfer speculations must exhaust some more than others.

The 2 top teams I set out this season tentatively opposing (Chelsea and Man City) b0th won close games 2-1 despite being very short in the pre match betting. This is trading bread and butter. In both games a late equaliser before the home winner allowed a tasty cashout . This is the real magic – laying teams who win but still making money. Very satisfying.

Good luck!

 

I’m not a big fan of Man United as I’ve tended to lean towards the Reds of Liverpool since Kevin Keegan caught my eye as the nearest thing we had to a real-life super hero in the late 70’s. I’ve ended up living in or around Merseyside which has cemented that preference – along with bringing a late interest in Tranmere. Sheffield Wednesday will always be my number one team.

I’ve delighted in some ManU defeats in recent years, not for panto-villain reasons but because it has been accompanied by the sight of money appearing in my trading account. So many football match markets are based on club or country reputations that are rooted in history yet ignore form – or whether the team in question can’t currently field a decent 11 (or simply can’t defend). Last season was a layers paradise which I doubt we’ll see again. Man U, City, Chelsea all underperformed yet were constantly priced short while, at the same time, many ‘experts’ said “Leicester can’t win the league” as late as April when it was clear they’d been the best team in the country for months. All this meant easy money for traders. However, I didn’t get involved to anything like the extent I had the previous year. There were a few reasons for this; not finding the time to get focused was one. If you are trading games you’ve got to be across them until full time, making decisions to reduce or increase positions and cashing out when the time is right. I didn’t have the time. The other thing was that, starting with week 1, I kept hitting decent accas – probably averaging an acca up twice a month all season. This meant I never  felt an urge to ‘try something different’. I was doing OK with quick multis and the account was healthy. This coming season I want to return to trading properly. I’m trying to build a bank of £500 from £100 deposited a week ago and am up to £236. Let’s see if I can do it.

I scanned my blog of a year ago (below) and I got some things right I reckon . And some things wrong. Let’s see what happens this time!

I started this entry by talking about Manchester United because I think one man makes them extremely interesting this season. It’s not Jose and it’s not Pogba …..

Zlatan and Frankie are probably my favourite sports stars of the last 15 years and I’ll be making the trip to OT to see the former at least once. I believe that if ManU improve dramatically this season it will not be down to Mourinho or to Pogba. It will be down to Zlatan. If he thrives then ManU will not be a laying proposition. If he fails I think it will take the new manager more than one year to arrest the decline and there will still be money to be made. I’m doubtful about Pogba – I don’t think he will be a big hit in the EPL but it will be interesting to find out. I think his attitude is wrong and he’ll get frustrated. In short, I still think Zlatan is good enough (at 35) to win the league with this ManU team and I will tread very warily . The free Moyes Money and the LVG ATM may become distant memories for layers. Either way, ManU ‘s biggest problem for 2 seasons has been chaotic defending. When the keeper is player of the season at a top club you know something is wrong. I think Smalling is improving into a proper top defender but they still need more. It’s possible that they will embark on a season of winning 3-2 but it doesn’t sound like the Jose way. I’m surprised he’s not buying top defenders yet. I’m taking ManU to finish top 2 due to Zlatan.

The money in the EPL is astounding. Watford plundering Marseille and Napoli for talent is a random eye-popping example. Still, however, the league doesn’t attract the very best in the world at the peak of their powers. Pogba (at least on the face of things) would be a timely step in the right direction re this anomaly.

I think Pep will have big problems getting the Man City squad to adapt to the pressing game he wants. There were signs of some poor attitudes at the Etihad last season and my view is that City need 7 or 8 players. De Bruyne is fabulous, and Aguero too if he can stay fit. But others are on the wane in my opinion; Hart, Kompany – even Silva – may have gone over the top. The young striker Iheanacho could be the City saviour as he looks a fantastic future star. Pep’s problems will all be in midfield though I think. He needs an engine.

At Chelsea the problems already materialised in an awful season. A new manager in the besuited, smart, young Euro mould that Abramovich prefers has moved in. I’m not convinced things are going to work out and I think there are still deep problems at Chelsea that we never quite get to the bottom of. Kante looks a great signing after one amazing season in England and Chelsea fans will be hoping they’ve found a new Makalele. I think he’s the player ManU should have gone for to shield the defence. City and Chelsea will hopefully go into games under-priced this season and find themselves regularly in tough, close matches against teams like… Watford. I’ll be laying City and Chelsea often until one or both manage to scare me off by looking like winning machines. I’m confident.

Leicester were 10 points better than anyone last season and I can’t let them go unbacked to retain at 28/1. The loss of Kante is a big blow. Mahrez and Vardy can still fire the blues to top 4 I’m sure. It looks like Vardy is staying. Mahrez is key. If he goes, or starts the season looking like he wishes he was somewhere else, then Leicester could be also-rans. It’s all about Mahrez now. I’m stunned that one of the big clubs hasn’t poached him. If I was a ManU fan I’d take him over Pogba and happily pay £100m. I’d like to see him stay for one more season and have a crack at the Champions League with Vardy although the defence (Huth!) will surely get some working over when the cream of Europe are against them instead of last year’s misfiring big name EPL attacks.

I think the top 4 could be ManU, Leicester, Spurs – and one of Liverpool and Arsenal. although I wouldn’t like to predict the order. Klopp has a similar problem to Pep in that he needs players who can press. Liverpool had a serious lack of pace last season. Firmino, Milner, Lallana, Coutinho were often camped outside opposition boxes lacking the incisive pass or the explosion of pace into the box to create clear chances. This was especially evident when Sturridge was injured and imo the team that could really do with Vardy is Liverpool. There were big moments last season when this half-paced situation needed the introduction of Ibe but it rarely came. He’s now moved to Bournemouth so maybe there was a problem there that we don’t know about. Origi has something about him but I think Sturridge has a real problem in playing for more than an hour. The jury is out but if Chelsea and City mis-fire again then Liverpool can sneak a top 4 spot if Klopp can introduce pace in the right areas. He’s ahead of Pep in that he has already shown that the players will increase the work-rate for him (and can do it). They can’t help being slow! Meanwhile there is no resason to think that Spurs will not replicate their excellent season. I’d make them my shortest priced top-4 finisher and will back that. Arsenal – I just can’t think of anything interesting to write about them. The attempt to get Vardy showed ambition and a break from the tried and tested but Wenger never followed it through. It’s hard to see a title challenge this season.

West Ham could have another fantastic season now they have held on to the world class Payet. I worry that they are patchy in quality across the team – the difference between the Hammers and Leicester last season was that West Ham had one clear player of the season and Leicester had 3. West Ham could easily finish above any big club who under-achieve though. Pep and Antonio beware!

I’d say the 3 promoted sides will have great difficulty staying up. Hull and Boro will really find it difficult to score goals. Burnley, with their difficult home atmosphere and more enterprising spirit, may cobble enough points together. I wonder if Southampton can keep getting away with losing their manager and half the team without the wheels coming off. I’ll have a long-odds fiver on them to go down but I wouldn’t wish it on them.

In the Championship, everyone is saying that Newcastle win it and Villa could get relegated. I think the former is  more likely than the second of those. I think both will be top 8 but find it extremely tough as big clubs and established challengers like Derby, Brighton, Cardiff and my own Sheffield Wednesday get into the 46 game grind while the relegated teams are still adjusting. The top 2 could come from any of these – you never know who will click. The Owls are very serious about getting promoted and money is being spent by an ambitious billionaire chairman. I’d take them to be top 6 . The over-priced team that I fancy to get in the mix are Birmingham .

I’ve lost track of league 2 due to Tranmere being relegated out of it. I think the Tranmere plan this season is to do the same things as last season and hope for a better result. They finished in 6th and missed out on the playoffs. They had an awful start, especially at home. If Rovers can normalise the stats at Prenton Park  then they will be top 5 all season. I’m not expecting a top spot winning machine though. In league 1 I’ll take relegated MK Dons to bounce back by winning it.

I’ve now got to choose a fantasy leage 11 before going off on holiday and returning my thoughts to the cricket. Good luck to all who read this.