Laying City, Leeds, Wigan. Liking Wednesday Norwich Brentford. Quite like Villa, MK, Tranmere. Working these 9 for accas. Hope I hit one
I sent the tweet above yesterday evening before kick off. It didn’t go particularly well but it didn’t go particularly badly. I expended about 40 on accas and my own Sheffield Wednesday blew 2 of them while MK blew the other by half time. Can’t always rely on getting an acca up.
Which is why … the Singles are so important!
Of the 9 opening positions above, 2 out of 3 lays came in … and of the 6 I fancied to win, only 3 actually managed it. That’s 5/9 things going to plan. No wonder the accas went awry .. and no wonder the singles (just) dug me out:-
A bit of detail ….
Leeds and Wigan lays = both of these were stacked towards the away win so that although the draw meant profit the away win would have yielded a fair bit more. Wigan and Leeds both drew but I cashed out when they were losing 1-0 with less than 10 minutes to go . I did exactly the same re Villa (who I had backed to win). So there are 3 games there where the team I favoured was 1-0 up late on but none of them actually won. If I’d have left the games to run to FT I’d have bombed at Villa Park (like their keeper) and seen a much reduced return at Wigan and Leeds. I also cashed out of Tranmere late on (this was a back bet and they were also winning just one nil which ended up being the FT).
My cashout strategy is that I will never let a game go to FT if a single goal can dramatically reduce my profit (or turn it into a loss). When stakes are larger (in lay bets) I’m using that larger stake to attract a return, not to win every penny available by hanging on for winners or waiting for the final whistle. As a rule I’m looking for 50% of the maximum return and then I’m away and gone.The bigger play is always ‘seed money’ not a full-on punt.
The City lay and the Sheffield Wednesday / MK bets last night were failures. In the end I finished up with almost exactly what I had laid out in total across accas and singles and the bank survives to have another go. If I hadn’t cashed out of the 4 x 1-nils I’d have been maybe a hundred down…
I’m feeling good about my pre-season blog after a week or two (early days). I warned myself in writing not to lay ManU then I went and did it and lost! Serves me right. I thought the absence of Smalling might just allow a bit of chaos to remain in defence but, in the end, Bournemouth were largely outclassed. I thought a few teams didn’t look fit/sharp at the weekend (Leicester and Arsenal among them) which is odd but I guess the whirlwind of Euros and exotic tours allied to transfer speculations must exhaust some more than others.
The 2 top teams I set out this season tentatively opposing (Chelsea and Man City) b0th won close games 2-1 despite being very short in the pre match betting. This is trading bread and butter. In both games a late equaliser before the home winner allowed a tasty cashout . This is the real magic – laying teams who win but still making money. Very satisfying.
Good luck!
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