Leeds and Wigan lays = both of these were stacked towards the away win so that although the draw meant profit the away win would have yielded a fair bit more.  Wigan and Leeds both drew but I cashed out when they were losing 1-0 with less than 10 minutes to go . I did exactly the same re Villa (who I had backed to win). So there are 3 games there where the team I favoured was 1-0 up late on but none of them actually won. If I’d have left the games to run to FT I’d have bombed at Villa Park (like their keeper) and seen a much reduced return at Wigan and Leeds. I also cashed out of Tranmere late on (this was a back bet and they were also winning just one nil which ended up being the FT).

My cashout strategy is that I will never let a game go to FT if a single goal can dramatically reduce my profit (or turn it into a loss). When stakes are larger (in lay bets) I’m using that larger stake to attract a return, not to win every penny available by hanging on for winners or waiting for the final whistle. As a rule I’m looking for 50% of the maximum return and then I’m away and gone.The bigger play is always ‘seed money’ not a full-on punt.

The City lay and the Sheffield Wednesday / MK bets last night were failures. In the end I finished up with almost exactly what I had laid out in total across accas and singles and the bank survives to have another go. If I hadn’t cashed out of the 4 x 1-nils I’d have been maybe a hundred down…

I’m feeling good about my pre-season blog after a week or two (early days). I warned myself in writing not to lay ManU then I went and did it and lost! Serves me right. I thought the absence of Smalling might just allow a bit of chaos to remain in defence but, in the end, Bournemouth were largely outclassed. I thought a few teams didn’t look fit/sharp at the weekend (Leicester and Arsenal among them) which is odd but I guess the whirlwind of Euros and exotic tours allied to transfer speculations must exhaust some more than others.

The 2 top teams I set out this season tentatively opposing (Chelsea and Man City) b0th won close games 2-1 despite being very short in the pre match betting. This is trading bread and butter. In both games a late equaliser before the home winner allowed a tasty cashout . This is the real magic – laying teams who win but still making money. Very satisfying.

Good luck!

 

I’m not a big fan of Man United as I’ve tended to lean towards the Reds of Liverpool since Kevin Keegan caught my eye as the nearest thing we had to a real-life super hero in the late 70’s. I’ve ended up living in or around Merseyside which has cemented that preference – along with bringing a late interest in Tranmere. Sheffield Wednesday will always be my number one team.

I’ve delighted in some ManU defeats in recent years, not for panto-villain reasons but because it has been accompanied by the sight of money appearing in my trading account. So many football match markets are based on club or country reputations that are rooted in history yet ignore form – or whether the team in question can’t currently field a decent 11 (or simply can’t defend). Last season was a layers paradise which I doubt we’ll see again. Man U, City, Chelsea all underperformed yet were constantly priced short while, at the same time, many ‘experts’ said “Leicester can’t win the league” as late as April when it was clear they’d been the best team in the country for months. All this meant easy money for traders. However, I didn’t get involved to anything like the extent I had the previous year. There were a few reasons for this; not finding the time to get focused was one. If you are trading games you’ve got to be across them until full time, making decisions to reduce or increase positions and cashing out when the time is right. I didn’t have the time. The other thing was that, starting with week 1, I kept hitting decent accas – probably averaging an acca up twice a month all season. This meant I never  felt an urge to ‘try something different’. I was doing OK with quick multis and the account was healthy. This coming season I want to return to trading properly. I’m trying to build a bank of £500 from £100 deposited a week ago and am up to £236. Let’s see if I can do it.

I scanned my blog of a year ago (below) and I got some things right I reckon . And some things wrong. Let’s see what happens this time!

I started this entry by talking about Manchester United because I think one man makes them extremely interesting this season. It’s not Jose and it’s not Pogba …..

Zlatan and Frankie are probably my favourite sports stars of the last 15 years and I’ll be making the trip to OT to see the former at least once. I believe that if ManU improve dramatically this season it will not be down to Mourinho or to Pogba. It will be down to Zlatan. If he thrives then ManU will not be a laying proposition. If he fails I think it will take the new manager more than one year to arrest the decline and there will still be money to be made. I’m doubtful about Pogba – I don’t think he will be a big hit in the EPL but it will be interesting to find out. I think his attitude is wrong and he’ll get frustrated. In short, I still think Zlatan is good enough (at 35) to win the league with this ManU team and I will tread very warily . The free Moyes Money and the LVG ATM may become distant memories for layers. Either way, ManU ‘s biggest problem for 2 seasons has been chaotic defending. When the keeper is player of the season at a top club you know something is wrong. I think Smalling is improving into a proper top defender but they still need more. It’s possible that they will embark on a season of winning 3-2 but it doesn’t sound like the Jose way. I’m surprised he’s not buying top defenders yet. I’m taking ManU to finish top 2 due to Zlatan.

The money in the EPL is astounding. Watford plundering Marseille and Napoli for talent is a random eye-popping example. Still, however, the league doesn’t attract the very best in the world at the peak of their powers. Pogba (at least on the face of things) would be a timely step in the right direction re this anomaly.

I think Pep will have big problems getting the Man City squad to adapt to the pressing game he wants. There were signs of some poor attitudes at the Etihad last season and my view is that City need 7 or 8 players. De Bruyne is fabulous, and Aguero too if he can stay fit. But others are on the wane in my opinion; Hart, Kompany – even Silva – may have gone over the top. The young striker Iheanacho could be the City saviour as he looks a fantastic future star. Pep’s problems will all be in midfield though I think. He needs an engine.

At Chelsea the problems already materialised in an awful season. A new manager in the besuited, smart, young Euro mould that Abramovich prefers has moved in. I’m not convinced things are going to work out and I think there are still deep problems at Chelsea that we never quite get to the bottom of. Kante looks a great signing after one amazing season in England and Chelsea fans will be hoping they’ve found a new Makalele. I think he’s the player ManU should have gone for to shield the defence. City and Chelsea will hopefully go into games under-priced this season and find themselves regularly in tough, close matches against teams like… Watford. I’ll be laying City and Chelsea often until one or both manage to scare me off by looking like winning machines. I’m confident.

Leicester were 10 points better than anyone last season and I can’t let them go unbacked to retain at 28/1. The loss of Kante is a big blow. Mahrez and Vardy can still fire the blues to top 4 I’m sure. It looks like Vardy is staying. Mahrez is key. If he goes, or starts the season looking like he wishes he was somewhere else, then Leicester could be also-rans. It’s all about Mahrez now. I’m stunned that one of the big clubs hasn’t poached him. If I was a ManU fan I’d take him over Pogba and happily pay £100m. I’d like to see him stay for one more season and have a crack at the Champions League with Vardy although the defence (Huth!) will surely get some working over when the cream of Europe are against them instead of last year’s misfiring big name EPL attacks.

I think the top 4 could be ManU, Leicester, Spurs – and one of Liverpool and Arsenal. although I wouldn’t like to predict the order. Klopp has a similar problem to Pep in that he needs players who can press. Liverpool had a serious lack of pace last season. Firmino, Milner, Lallana, Coutinho were often camped outside opposition boxes lacking the incisive pass or the explosion of pace into the box to create clear chances. This was especially evident when Sturridge was injured and imo the team that could really do with Vardy is Liverpool. There were big moments last season when this half-paced situation needed the introduction of Ibe but it rarely came. He’s now moved to Bournemouth so maybe there was a problem there that we don’t know about. Origi has something about him but I think Sturridge has a real problem in playing for more than an hour. The jury is out but if Chelsea and City mis-fire again then Liverpool can sneak a top 4 spot if Klopp can introduce pace in the right areas. He’s ahead of Pep in that he has already shown that the players will increase the work-rate for him (and can do it). They can’t help being slow! Meanwhile there is no resason to think that Spurs will not replicate their excellent season. I’d make them my shortest priced top-4 finisher and will back that. Arsenal – I just can’t think of anything interesting to write about them. The attempt to get Vardy showed ambition and a break from the tried and tested but Wenger never followed it through. It’s hard to see a title challenge this season.

West Ham could have another fantastic season now they have held on to the world class Payet. I worry that they are patchy in quality across the team – the difference between the Hammers and Leicester last season was that West Ham had one clear player of the season and Leicester had 3. West Ham could easily finish above any big club who under-achieve though. Pep and Antonio beware!

I’d say the 3 promoted sides will have great difficulty staying up. Hull and Boro will really find it difficult to score goals. Burnley, with their difficult home atmosphere and more enterprising spirit, may cobble enough points together. I wonder if Southampton can keep getting away with losing their manager and half the team without the wheels coming off. I’ll have a long-odds fiver on them to go down but I wouldn’t wish it on them.

In the Championship, everyone is saying that Newcastle win it and Villa could get relegated. I think the former is  more likely than the second of those. I think both will be top 8 but find it extremely tough as big clubs and established challengers like Derby, Brighton, Cardiff and my own Sheffield Wednesday get into the 46 game grind while the relegated teams are still adjusting. The top 2 could come from any of these – you never know who will click. The Owls are very serious about getting promoted and money is being spent by an ambitious billionaire chairman. I’d take them to be top 6 . The over-priced team that I fancy to get in the mix are Birmingham .

I’ve lost track of league 2 due to Tranmere being relegated out of it. I think the Tranmere plan this season is to do the same things as last season and hope for a better result. They finished in 6th and missed out on the playoffs. They had an awful start, especially at home. If Rovers can normalise the stats at Prenton Park  then they will be top 5 all season. I’m not expecting a top spot winning machine though. In league 1 I’ll take relegated MK Dons to bounce back by winning it.

I’ve now got to choose a fantasy leage 11 before going off on holiday and returning my thoughts to the cricket. Good luck to all who read this.

 

 

 

 

 

As summer reaches its height I have the annual feeling that football is arriving too quickly. The Ashes is only half way through Test 4 with all the one day stuff to follow. The big York race meeting in August isn’t until next week. It always feels a bit rushed and wrong to me – but we soon get drawn in. One of the brain’s more difficult adjustments is that from Test Cricket – the athletic game of strategy and chess … to 90 minutes of what a scathing dad of a childhood friend called “22 blokes in daft shorts chasing a bag of wind around a park”. There was a nugget of truth in this throwaway comment which seared into my brain circa 1980. Football has patterns (if you can read them) but there is little of true strategy. Any game-plan built around trying to whizz a ball into the pandemonium of the penalty area from the wings gives itself away. It isn’t really a plan. Most goals come from confusing defenders rather than outwitting them. There are, of course, moments of true beauty in football. I think these seem so beautiful because they adorn what is essentially a chaotic trench warfare.

However, I love football. I recently calculated that I have watched something over 2,500 complete 90 minute matches in my lifetime – either from the stands or on TV. I never watch edited highlights for a variety of reasons including the fact that they mess up my clarity of thought for trading.

I’m not particularly interested in individual players. I’ll make a point of taking in a game featuring some of the genuises but I’m more interested in the flow of the game and, above all, the form and confidence of teams. I base my entire trading strategy around 3-7 day form. If a team is buzzing I’ll lay any other team against them. I mostly avoid stats because I think they are almost all priced in. You can’t expect stats to give you an edge. Only the things that defy the stats can win you real money. I confess that I do have a few get-out-of-jail ‘stats-based’ in-running plays that I fall back on if things go awry. Pre-match, I believe the stats are priced into the market and you’ll go nuts looking for angles.

My approach is:-

1. Watch teams play and form a judgement about how they are performing at this moment. Are they buzzing? Are they scoring goals? Do they seem to have confidence?

2. Back teams that are buzzing against teams that are faltering, low on confidence or under particular pressure.

Football is 90% a confidence game and that’s why I trade on confidence more than any other factor. Once I have my views of where teams are at ‘this week’ then I begin looking for games where my personal opinion is opposite to the market. Where that happens I get involved. The best cases are where a team I want to lay is playing a team I want to back – especially when the former is a short priced favourite.

If a team is a long odds-on favourite to win a match but you don’t think they should be … then get involved. Remember – the key point is that you are backing your opinion that the game will prove to be a lot closer than the odds would suggest. If a team is 3/1 on and wins 1-0 with an 80th minute goal then it causes barely a ripple but you will have laid them pre-game, and cashed out on the hour. Easy! If the opposition takes a shock early lead then you are sitting pretty and can make decisions about getting out or staying in from behind a safety fence. Always nice.

As last season I will blog here about some of my plays and I’ll be tweeting as usual. I made a lot of money laying Man U last season and I’ll be following that strategy again to start with. There’s nothing much to go on until a few games have been played but a team that finished 4th with its goalkeeper man-of-the-match nearly every week is a gift. Now that the keeper is either leaving, dropped or will be in a confused state between the sticks I’ll start by laying ManU this weekend against Spurs. It might work out and it might not. Just something to get the juices flowing.

While I’m on the subject of mixed up minds – I think Raheem Sterling will be a revelation at City. He was wonderful 2 years ago and very in/out last season as he had weighty matters on young shoulders. Basically the only way to stop this guy is to foul him and I make him a footballer of the year contender in a happy Etihad home.

ManU bought Schweinsteiger who I’ve always thought (like Rooney) is a bit of a kidder. It will be fascinating to see how he performs. I don’t expect ManU to be top 3 this season. I think Milner will rack up good performances at Liverpool although I also think they will again fall short. There is still a gap for an unfashionable  team to put some good stuff together and steal that 4th spot. Arsenal will have the best team they’ve had in years and could go close. If, as is rumoured today, they get Benzema then they would be genuine title contenders in my opinion. Chelsea will be a winning machine again but I’ll take City to win the league on a feast of Sterling inspired assists and goals.

The Championship will be the usual “everyone beats everyone” carnage. My team, Sheffield Wednesday, have become big spenders at this level. WIth an unknown Portuguese manager and a plan to play Iberian football with a team of Spaniards and Portuguese it’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen. They will have much improved quality and should be a top 6 team but I wouldn’t be backing or laying them at the moment.

In the Conference, Tranmere now find themselves cast as the big club. They have hired a manager who has successfully negotiated teams of similar stature out of the division and I expect them to be a team the bettor can hang his hat on this season – especially at home.

Which is a nice thought as I’ll be sat freezing at Prenton Park in the depths of winter. Seems a long way off on this sunny early August Friday.

Back to the cricket.

@eltav

http://www.teamchoochoo.co.uk

I wanted to record what happened last night while it was fresh in my memory and, as usual, so I can learn from it. For me it was an interesting little night on Betdaq.
It wasn’t a very good night for me overall. Most of the first half goals in England seemed to go against me (though things turned round in some games after HT). If Tranmere had held on to a late 2-0 lead rather than losing 3-2 I could have even showed a slight profit in England. Not to worry.

It’s the Man City v Barca game that I want to write about because of how it went and how I managed to escape. I looked at the game in the afternoon and really couldn’t see an angle in it. Essentially, I had no idea what was going to happen. I think this Barca side isn’t half of what Pep’s side was but it does have the 3 terrifying forwards. I thought City might blow Barca away with Aguero back to fitness and form. Equally, I thought Messi could easily inspire a good night for Barca. Not rocket science. In the end I came down to one fact; Man City playing at home, priced at 3/1 … I had to have some. So I put £100 on Man City to win £300. I was comfortable with this on a night where I had a good few quid at play in the English Leagues. I thought the game would be close enough for me to get out at some stage if necessary.

In the event, Man City were not going to be blowing anyone away last night. They were pedestrian in the first half. I thought they had stage fright – memories of last season v Barca overwhelmed them. The crowd were quiet and Barca went 1 nil up. City offered no tempo or real threat.

At 1-0 I made a mistake. When I have worked out what I think will happen in a match, I don’t fear the first goal going against me if it’s early. If I have decided a team will win then I am quite happy to accept that they may not keep a clean sheet. So I often pile more money on when the team is a goal down. Often as not, I’m right and it turns round with me winning much more than I would have originally. Even if the team you are backing merely equalises the market corrects and all that extra punt facilitates a nice cash out position – especially if the team you are supporting started out as favs.

On this occasion City went a goal down and I backed them at 8-1. I shouldn’t have. That is not just in retrospect but because normal conditions didn’t apply. I hadn’t originally backed City out of a conviction that they would win but just as a response to the prices. There was no reason to go piling more on. But City, at home, a goal down early at 8/1? Gimme some I said. MISTAKE.

Then, City were statuesque as the Barca players moved and Suarez made it 2 nil. I was in a hole. At half time I stood to lose £200 if City didn’t win. The draw was against me big style … and even a draw looked unlikely.

How to get out? What is interesting is that I decided that the only way out was to pile MORE money into the City side of the market – by laying the pants off Barca at 1.08. This, I did. I laid Barca for over £1300 at 1.08 meaning that the loss if Barca won would be increased to an eye-watering £300+ but the draw would earn me over £1000. What was I playing at??

Well, I wasn’t happy to sit on a £200 loss without trying to take evasive action. The gamble here was that City could not possibly be as bad in the second half and that they would score next. As long as that goal came before around 75 minutes and City were on the front foot, the odds would swing wildly towards the draw and I would get out. And that’s exactly what happened.

Aguero scored a great goal, the odds spun like a fruit machine and for one beautiful moment I could cash out on a £24 loss. Quite remarkable. For a brief moment I thought; “imagine if City get another” (eyeing the big green draw) but good sense prevailed and I cashed out.
A couple of minutes later City got a red card and the odds careered back away from me. Phew!

So, in summary, I stood to lose £200 on a Barca win and Barca were 2 nil up. By increasing that risk to £300 I was able to escape with a £24 loss despite City never even equalising.

Interesting I thought.

 

I must apologise for the delay. The small number of people who follow my blog have occasionally reminded me that it has gone quiet. All I can say is that I work in an industry and a field so boring that, were I to name it here, you would be asleep before you got to the footy. In that field I started a new contract on October 1st and it has been all-in. I have 3 days of freedom left before I return to the office so I am taking the opportunity to give an update. Many thanks to those on Twitter who have asked me to do so.

The headlines are:-
• I continue to make regular and steady profit. I had a run where I really felt I could take fifty quid out of any match. I still feel that most of the time.
• I had some enormous highs like when I kept piling money into Man City in their home game v Bayern and Aguero’s last minute strike netted me over £700. Those who were on Twitter that night will recall this one.
• I have made a number of significant withdrawals from my Betdaq account. I aim to top up my wages with something meaningful each month.
• I wiped my bank out once (quite recently).

I think I will start with that 4th bullet as I have been meaning to figure out what happened. This seems as good a moment as any…

OK, so I try to have a balance (bank) of £500 to £1000 at all times. Higher is better because it means I can get involved in more plays on a busy Saturday. It is quite possible to be exposed for the full grand on any Saturday but, in truth, quite hard to lose it all if you are across 4 or 5 matches. At the very least, the law of averages protects you. If you can get 3 out of 4 results right or be involved in 5 out of 6 profitable games then you rake the £1000 back in and ‘hey presto’ it has grown to £1250. That’s the essence of the method. Looking back at my account I can see that, on 8th December, I withdrew £625 leaving a £1250 bank. This is a healthy position – essentially it is what I am aiming for. However, by 21st December I had wiped that £1250 out and had to make a deposit. The good news is that this was the first deposit I had needed to make since the World Cup and there have been a number of withdrawals in that time. So what happened in those 13 days of carnage …?

Analysis shows that everything was normal up until the 19th December when my bank was still over £750. This is all within the normal range of fluctuations. The aim is to get the bank to something over £1500 once a month then withdraw it down to a grand but it is normal to dip down a few hundred along the way. It’s the overall trend that matters. Protecting the bank is key. So what happened on the 19th to 21st…?

1st thing that happened = I laid a horse called Bognor for £200 and it won. Actually I had forgotten about this and I only laid it because it was the last leg in a nice treble placed in a bookies account and I got £867 paid out there. But still – it’s a fair chunk of the explanation (I must admit that finding this has just cheered me up about the sustainability of my footy strategy).
2nd thing that happened = 4 football matches in a row that went wrong. My £750 was down to £500 mainly because of Bognor. On the 19th (probably feeling invincible after the horse win but just as likely wanting my £200 back) I got involved in 3 games I should have left alone:-

Millwall v Bolton I have no defence for this. I backed the draw as I thought it would be very cagey and if a team went a goal up it would still end up level deep in the game. In the event it was nil nil until 68 minutes when Bolton scored a winner. I have no excuse. Lost £67

Southend v Burton This was a thought-out play that went wrong. These 2 teams were going strongly at the top but I thought this was an opportunity to assert and that Burton would take it. I was pretty sure that it would be close enough for me to get out unscathed anyway. In the event I re-learned a lesson. I backed Burton to the tune of £134. The game finished nil nil and I could have had a hundred pounds back late in the day. But I let it run. I was probably on the Prosecco by the latter stages. Lessons here are; 1/ where you expect a tight game you should lay, not back, to keep the draw as your friend. 2/ in this scenario you should cut your losses at 80mins, latest.
I know both these things well from my own experience. I just didn’t do them. Lost £134

Tranmere v Cambridge This was a moment when a little local knowledge was a dangerous thing. Tranmere were in dire form and their regular draws looked like beginning to turn into defeats. I thought Cambridge would come and nick the points. Again, I made the same mistake of backing Cambridge instead of laying Tranmere and the 1-1 draw cost me £130

The 19th of December was a night of indiscipline, bad decisions and ignoring my own tried and tested strategies. In the past I had recovered my Bank from as low as £300 and got it back up into withdrawal territory. This time I messed up. If the bank is low you can’t afford to get involved in 3 games and get them all wrong without wiping out. I needed to choose one of these games and play a lay. If I’d simply laid Tranmere or Southend I would have made money.

On the 20th I was staggering along on a bank of under £150. This, in truth, is too small to recover from unless you try and take it back up to £300 in tenners. That takes ages. So I played a treble on 3 teams (only 2 won) and also backed Newcastle in a game they lost to Sunderland (this was also the one that brought down the treble).

20th of December lesson = A reminder that if you can get 2 results out of 3 right then trading is the answer. Accas are for the bookies.

SO WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?
I made a deposit on the 21st December and I am pleased to say that the full value of that deposit was withdrawn yesterday (New Years Day). Some of this recovery is down to re-finding discipline and re-learning those lessons.

Essentially I haven’t got much wrong since Christmas. Remembering the lesson of the 19th, I got involved in a couple of single-game sniper lays midweek. I laid Yeovil at home to Orient, reasoning that the Yeovil players wouldn’t fancy it too much on a frozen pitch with Man Utd coming to town days later. Orient cantered to a 3-0 win.
The next night I laid Wigan at home to Sheffield Wednesday. This was a case of local knowledge paying off as Wednesday’s form was returning, they have a great defence and Wigan are extremely poor at home. I thought Wednesday could win this. It took 76 minutes for Wednesday to find a winner and I would often have cashed out on 75. This would have been frustrating. However I was following the game closely and Wigan were down to ten men so I decided to stick with it until 81 minutes. Then up pops Big Dave and it was money in the bank.

The Yeovil and Wigan lays plus a lovely lay on Huddersfield on the 28th when I cashed out 1 minute before the Terriers winner had netted me £375 profit in total. I was back in the game and this, plus the deposit from the 21st , gave me a Bank to go at the New Years Day games with. And NYD is where nearly everything went right …

My morning plays were to lay Man Utd at Stoke, lay Arsenal at Southampton and lay Everton at Hull. These were all form-based picks. I cashed out of the Man Utd lay in the early game on 80mins and was out of the Arsenal game by half time. I let the Everton game run. These 3 games netted me £200.

I was sitting pretty at half time in the 3pm kick-offs so I looked to get involved elsewhere. I was following the games closely so I thought I could manage some small investments. I laid QPR who were 1-0 up against Swansea at HT and backed West Ham who were 1-1 with West Brom. In the event these 2 plays evened each other out as Swansea scored in injury time but West Ham couldn’t break WBA down. No harm done.

My favourite play of the day was Man City where I had gazed wistfully at 1.44 pre-match and thought “that could be the easiest £44 of the year”. However, I didn’t back them. I had just remarked upon this on twitter as Man City were 2-0 up when Sunderland scored 2 quick and unexpected goals. The score was 2-2 for less than 2 minutes during which time I was able to bang £75 on City at even money. These are the best moments. They are impossible if you are not across the games and in front of screens. Up popped Lampard and I was feeling good.

So then I wondered if a crazy day of results might be finished off by a Spurs win over Chelsea. I put £20 on Spurs just in case. I like the look of Spurs rather more than some of my Twitter friends do. Then Chelsea scored first and  were down very low at 1.27 so I laid them for £100. There was some logic behind this – not least the fact that Spurs were playing well and early away goals often lead to goal-crazy matches. In the end the game was a feast of entertainment and I cleared £164 profit.

So, I was able to withdraw the deposit I made on the 21st and leave a £500 bank. I intend to move forwards with this judiciously and grow it to £1500 in January. Time will tell!!

Happy New Year to all.

@elTav

I started with a  lay of Man City at home to Liverpool on Monday night. I wasn’t so much confident that Liverpool could or would win the game but I really felt that they could start fast and get City on the back foot. I felt that the match would be much tighter than the odds suggested. Unfortunately I was to end up trapped in what I call a “no-escape scenario”. These are the killers where the first thing that happens is against you and the balance doesn’t get redressed as your money evaporates. Even worse, I had quite a big play on this game. I laid Man City at 1.9 risking a stonking £150. The game began as I expected and Liverpool were dominating the play without making clear chances. At 40 minutes I could have taken a profit. However, I made a mistake that I have made twice this week … I waited for half time. The reason I did this was because I was watching the match and it was one-way traffic. I need to think about this because if I hadn’t been watching I may well have gotten out after half an hour or so and made thirty quid. However, I decided to hang on until HT because it seemed that it would be nil nil and, if there was to be a goal, Liverpool would score it. Then, just before half-time, Liverpool made a catastrophic error in defence and it was 1-0. Game over.

Analysing this game is interesting. I believe that Liverpool would have been one or two goals up by the half hour against most teams in Europe given this performance. But they couldn’t find that killer pass to turn dominance into a goal. I think that this was less due to Liverpool limitations and more down to the superb resilience of the Manchester City team. In particular, Kompany and Hart were dominant and Liverpool could not break through. It won’t be the same for Liverpool at Spurs this weekend and I expect them to take the lead and probably win. I’ll be laying Spurs. I think Manchester City showed the character they will need when they have to survive pressure in the Champions League cauldrons. They may finally go well in that competition. They keys are that Hart maintains his form and Kompany maintains his fitness.

Despite their scintillating first 40 minutes, there was an aspect of the Liverpool performance that was less encouraging. In the second half they were listless and seemed to lack belief. It felt like they didn’t think that they could score or win once they had gone behind. This may be where the lack of Suarez is most keenly felt. It is also why I think the signing of Balotelli is a masterstroke. Liverpool lacked fire, character and personality in that second half and I think Balotelli will help with this.

So, I went into Tuesday in recovery mode. In the end it took me 6 straight profitable games to recover the Liverpool ton-and-a-half but I managed it. The first big chunk came with Celtic. I was convinced that they had stolen the draw in the first leg and I couldn’t get the fact that they had shipped 6 against a Polish side out of my mind. I laid Celtic for £60 at 1.57 and backed Maribor (£4 at 7.2). When the goal came, I was out for a profit of £66.61. So far, so good.

It was what else was happening while Celtic were losing that is most interesting. I laid Derby as I thought they were too short at home to free scoring Charlton (£50 at 1.69). I also laid Sheffield Wednesday (£28 at 4.0). Wednesday had made a few team changes and I didn’t think they could win. The beauty of these plays is that both teams won but I made a profit. I got out of both games on 75 mins (2 mins before Wednesday were awarded the winning penalty). I made £38 across both games. So that was £103 of my Liverpool money back!

On Wednesday I managed another 3 from 3. I backed Sunderland (£20 at 2.1) to win at Birmingham (won 3-0). I laid Leeds at Bradford (a game I watched). Leeds were absolutely terrible and I noted tidy football from Bradford. Bradford won 2-1 although I was sweating when Leeds took the lead.I laid Leeds for £33 at 3.1. I wasn’t expecting to be in until 90minutes but again (maybe because I was watching) I stayed in the play until the bitter end.

I also thought that Bilbao v Napoli would be very tight and that there was mileage in backing the draw. I backed this (£50 at 3.45) and took a £14 profit at half time when the score was nil nil. Bilbao ran out winners in the end but the money was safe. This is the real art … making money out of games where the end result is something other than the one you ‘backed’. I didn’t care about the result of this game – I just needed it to be tight in the first half and it was.

Across Wednesday’s 3 games I made a total of £70 meaning that the LFC debacle was recovered and I was back in profit for the season as I had been at the start of the week.

Then, last night, I laid Spurs. A £55 lay at 1.2 was cheap as chips.  I was hoping that the Cypriots could keep it tight in the early exchanges. It was a cheap play (risking £13) and it nearly came off once Spurs had missed an early penalty. I was watching … and waiting for half time. I wanted to get out at nil nil and benefit from the time decay.  Then, right on the stroke of HT …

1-0 to Spurs. Thirteen quid gone west. I need to think about this because I’m getting stung between 41-45 minutes. I may tweak my get-out strategy. I like to be out and relaxing in the second half anyway ….

@eltav

I decided not to bore anyone (or myself) by describing the rest of my World Cup trades. However, I pretty much continued as I had started – although it did get harder. I finished with a nice lay on Germany in the final. To be honest I thought that Argentina would turn them over and lift the trophy but the draw at 90 minutes was all I needed.

Then I had to wait …

I wanted to try and bring the same ideas and principles to bear on club football. I was impatient to get started but I made the decision not to get involved in any pre-season games. These are lotteries and it was nice to forget about football and let summer fill the mind with cricket and holidays. I then further reasoned that I shouldn’t get involved in League Cup games which are hardly any more predictable than a friendly. It’s important to know that the participants in the event you want to bet on are all trying their hardest. As many will know, this cannot be assumed with horse-racing and it continually queers the pitch. The League Cup is similar because teams on the field may be trying but some managers are, at best, neutral in their desire to stay in that competition.

So I waited for the league stuff. Well, actually, I nearly didn’t. I decided to lay Bayern Munich against Dortmund in the German version of the charity shield last week. This was to be the beginning of my brave new trading career. However, having made this decision I failed to notice that the game was kicking off early. By the time I logged on it was 1-0 to Dortmund. At that point I would have been trading out and counting the money. Still, it was good to know that I had gotten it right.

Week 1 – Saturday

If I had written this blog a day earlier I could have been crowing about my ‘reading’ of that game in Germany and an umblemished six out of six profit haul in the English leagues. Last week (week 2 of the Football League) I really wanted to get involved. However, I was travelling to Sheffield to watch the Owls play Derby so I knew that whatever my opening position was, I would be stuck with it. I knew I wouldn’t have the wifi or the 3G at Hillsborough to do anything in-running. So I picked 3 teams that I thought were a low price but would not win. I laid them and went off to Sheffield. The 3 I laid were Sheffield Wednesday (my team) who had started the season with a superb win at Brighton. I’d read match reports that suggested Wednesday had not been the better side in that game, but had scored and held on. I thought Derby were likely to bring too much class for the Owls to cope with and that they would be returning to the Midlands with at least a point. Actual Result 0-0. Profit £20

In the EPL I laid Leicester who I thought would be giving Everton a tough game but who, ultimately, would not be able to beat them. The fact that Leicester were at home meant the price was one at which I could get involved. Result 2-2. Profit £17

And … I laid Manchester United. My view is that Man U have a squad stuffed with ordinary players and that it will take some weeks for LVG to sort things out. I thought that Swansea would come with a well organised team who could continue smoothly from last year and give Manchester United a runaround. I didn’t know if they could win but I thought they wouldn’t lose.  I particularly liked the fact that Swansea had re-signed their best player of 2 seasons ago from Spurs. It felt great, in the event, when he scored the winner. Result 1-2. Profit £20

So, day 1 went well.  3 matches, 3 lays, 3 wins for me. But I hadn’t done what I’d been doing in the World Cup yet …

Week 1 – Midweek

I decided to get involved with 3 games again. I laid Middlesbrough who were going to Bolton. Boro had lost at a very poor Leeds the week before. I thought that Boro could not win this game although it was likely to be low quality and low-scoring.  I laid Boro for £40 at 2.74. In the event I was wrong about this match as Boro won 2-1. However Bolton had taken the lead in the first half and I immediately got out, taking a profit of £23.40.

I had seen Derby in the flesh the week before. I thought that they were short of goals and would struggle to come away from Charlton with a win. So I laid Derby for £40 at 2.24. I was right about this match (Charlton won) and wrong (Derby scored twice). However, Charton scored first and I got out before the first Derby equaliser (Backing Derby £20.46 at 4.4), taking a profit of £19.54.

The third game I chose was Arsenal who were a short price away at Besiktas. I thought that Arsenal would probably win but it would be a tough tie. However, I feared an early Arsenal goal so laid them for just £15  at 1.71. I got out when it was 0-0 at half-time as this was my target. I took a profit of £6. I could have waited but the half-time exit (if green) was my pre-match plan.

So that was 6 games in profit. A pleasing start – especially as it shows that what I was doing in the World Cup can be applied anywhere. There are one or two rules to follow and a few different scenarios – including the ‘done-your-dough’ no escape ones! I plan to carry on with this trading throughout the season and nail down my strategies and rules. I will increase stakes (and risk) as I develop confidence – and also where the market seems to offer more opportunity. I don’t plan to blog this trading weekly but I will report occasionally. If anyone wants to discuss what I’m doing or what they are doing, please tweet me @elTav

I would be delighted to share ideas.

Oh – and about last night. It was half-time in the Fulham game and Wolves were 1-0 up. I wasn’t involved. I listened to the first 2 minutes of the second half on the radio. I had a strong feeling that this game was heading for a draw. I laid Wolves (£50 at 1.53). The lack of any further goal meant that this rash play cost me an annoying £25.

Discipline is the key!

@elTav

 

I haven’t yet added to my first blog entry because I have been waiting for something to write about. To hit the target, writing needs to be at least semi-automatic.

I decided that I would spend June-August 2014 having a proper go at sports-trading in order to find out whether I have the skills to make a living or a worthwhile profit. I started out thinking only of horse racing but, after one month, turf hits and misses are still only levelling out. Now this isn’t too bad a return – anyone who can get involved in backing/laying maybe 100 horses a week and tread water is definitely beating the index. However, as my 90yo pal Orrel (ex scrap-dealer) reminded me, breaking even is not making a living. I will continue to refine my approach around the gee-gees and update the blog at a later date. At the moment it’s too early to tell although the signs are 51% negative. Also, I have been able to turn a buck on the horses for many years by using a bit of nous, knowledge and intelligent low-stakes bets. There is profit for me in this (I have no stats but I know that I rarely need to top up a betting account and have made many withdrawals). However, as with the trading, I think this profit is small in the long term. Essentially it is free entertainment that occasionally pays for a meal out and, once in a while, a holiday. I will blog about my approach to and experience of punting horses at a later date. In the meantime I will give myself a little more time to consider a few trading approaches before going into detail about my racing adventures so far.

So what inspires me to write today? The answer lies in the wondrous World Cup 2014 which I have watched intently. While watching, I have (to my surprise) enjoyed something of a hit rate in trading the matches.
There are 2 outcomes to a match if you trade it; the football result and the trading profit/loss. I have found that it’s possible to get the first one of these wrong but still get the second one right. It is this that is leading me to believe that trading football matches is a more likely focus for me in the next few months of testing. It is important to me (and before I forget the details) to capture the story of each of the games that I have traded so that I have a record and can learn from it. I could create this journal privately but I thought I would like to share these notes in the hope of comments from those more expert than me.

I should make it clear that I am not offering or planning to describe a system. I do not play by any rules. I am basing every play in every match on 4 factors:-

1/ Pre-Match – What do I think will or can’t happen?
2/ Pre-Match – Where is the value?
3/ In-Running – What is happening?
4/ In Running – What do I think will happen?

Clearly, all these factors are totally subjective. Perhaps number 3 is, to some extent, an exception – although in reality “what is happening” is a complex construct that the mind needs to fathom from the evidence available. There are many more factors than just the score and the time elapsed.

This brings me to a critical point. I have said that this isn’t a system. I don’t even know the long-term profitability of the approach. All I know is that before many of these games, I have a strong, medium or weak opinion on what is likely to happen. Sometimes the stronger opinions are the opposite of what the markets are thinking. In those cases I have a real chance of making money. As long as I’m right.

I haven’t made significant money and I haven’t been risking large amounts (I am in a test mode). A typical play may involve risking £50 to make £30 although I have greened up as low as £8 and as high as £330 in this world cup. I have also made a few losses and I will talk about each as I get to them. I am making a profit.

There is a key ingredient here and I will turn to that now. Because this isn’t a system, it relies on knowledge, experience and judgement. In short, it relies on the ability to watch 2 football teams in two totally different matches a week apart and then have a strong idea about what will happen when they meet. To make this work you have to really understand football. You have to understand it more than the commentators, the pundits, the players and 95% of people watching. I haven’t used any statistics or listened to any outside advice. As each game approaches, I ask myself “what do I think will happen?” And; what do I think can’t happen?” If these aren’t apparent then I am reduced to “where is the value?” I am only beginning to explore all this but I have got lots right (and some things, painfully wrong). It seems a good moment to jot down a few early thoughts and experiences.

I’ll start with the first match I traded. I will then diarise all the games I’ve been involved in. This particular blog entry contains only the first 32 games during which I have experienced an increase in confidence (sometimes leading to expensive mistakes) and the beginnings of understanding how to forecast the result wrongly but still make money.

Should anyone read through this blog it may bring back a few memories of the World Cup so far. Essentially this entry is not just about betting, but about the World Cup. Through trading the games I feel I am inhabiting the event in a deeper way and this is all adding to my enjoyment.

In later entries I will bring the match list below up to date and also talk about my adventures in the outright market where I am presently green, having traded out of pre-tournament bets; Costa Rica, Chile, Mexico, USA (profit), Uruguay (Break Even), Portugal (Loss). I am still playing France (backed after match 1) and Colombia (backed after group phase).

The following is an account of the first 32 matches I traded in the World Cup.

England v Italy 14th June 2014 Result 1-2
What did I think would happen? Italy would win.
What did I think could not happen? An England win.
These assumptions add up to a strong pre-match position. England games offer opportunities to use a little of what you know. The patriotic punters were out in force and I was able to lay England at 2.54 for £50. In truth, I was surprised by the high quality of England’s performance here but the goals went for me and I let this run to full time. Outcome; Profit £50

France v Honduras 15th June 2014 Result 3-0
To be honest this wasn’t really a trade. I played a bet in a yes/no exotic market and it came up. We all now know that Honduras brought an extremely physical, almost violent, philosophy to this world cup. But who knew it before their first game kicked off? Well, I did and I suspect anyone else who had stayed up into the early hours to watch their pre-tournament Miami friendly with England did. In the “Red Card Yes/No?” market, I laid “No” for £30 at 1.35. I felt that France’s fast forwards, Honduras’ violence and (I got lucky here) strict FIFA refereeing would ensure a red card in this game. And just before half-time I was able to enjoy £30 and a bet-free second half. I only played this particular market one more time because it quickly became apparent that the referees in the World Cup are under instruction to keep games at 11v11 wherever possible. Red cards are a rarity compared to earlier World Cups. Outcome; Profit £30

Iran v Nigeria 16th June 2014 Result 0-0
I didn’t know much about Iran. I was pretty sure that the market wouldn’t know much about them either. I knew that there was a chance that Nigeria would be disorganised or unfocused due to camp squabbles. I decided that Nigeria were probably under-priced and laid them at 2.18 for £20. As I hoped, Iran provided valiant opposition and although Nigeria dominated play, they made few chances. I was able to see this out and collect. Outcome; Profit £20

Ghana v USA 16th June 2014 Result 1-2
I have great confidence in USA to continue to improve and to eventually win a World Cup. They have strong players, excellent management and a fabulous fighting spirit. My starting position was “I don’t think USA will lose their first match”. However, it was a small play (£20) and I laid Ghana at 2.46. USA went ahead so I was feeling pretty comfortable. However, I backed Ghana at this point (£7.80 at 6.4). This gave me some relief when Ghana equalised later as I had all results covered. USA went ahead again but my profit had already been reduced by the cover bet.
Outcome; Profit £12.20

Belgium v Algeria 17th June 2014 Result 2-1
My starting position for this game was simple; “Algeria can’t win”. Because I was saying “can’t” rather than “won’t” I upped the stakes slightly and laid Algeria at 3.0 for £25. This was a £50 liability risk. At this stage I didn’t know anymore about Algeria than I knew about Iran the day before but I did know about Belgium’s world-class cast list. In the event, I got a shock when Algeria took the lead from a penalty. I rode this out, confident that Belgium would come back. When Belgium equalised I backed Algeria at 11.0 (£7.50) and greened up.
Outcome; Profit £17.50

Brazil v Mexico 17th June 2014 Result 0-0
This was a frustrating game because it was my first loss and I made this loss despite my opening proposition; “Mexico will not lose” proving to be correct. I felt that Brazil would be under enormous pressure and were a team containing many nearly men from club-sides who didn’t quite win things last season (eg Chelsea and Barcelona). Brazil’s win against Croatia had been unconvincing in my eyes. I expected Mexico to be organised and competitive and I thought this might be a draw but hoped Mexico could take the lead. Despite being mostly right, I lost money! The loss was a combination of higher stakes and wrong decisions. I opened by laying Brazil at 1.37 for £100 2 hours before kick off. Maybe it was the size of the bet or something that I saw or read but I then backed out of this position and backed Brazil at 1.38 pre-match. So I entered the match with a tiny free bet on Brazil. I then made another mistake. In the second half I really fancied the draw and backed it (£12 at 3.7). Late in the game, Brazil were laying siege to the Mexico goal and I decided the draw was doomed. I tried to cash out and could have got a tiny green position as the draw was trading at 3.5. However, rather than greening up I laid the draw for £20 as I was sure a goal was coming. In the end, it didn’t and both my opening positions were proved correct (Lay Brazil and Back draw). But I still lost. Outcome; Loss £17.61

Russia v South Korea 17th June 2014 Result 1-1
My starting assumptions here were that Capello’s Russia would be turgid and ill-equipped to cope with the conditions. I also expected South Korea to attack with verve and vigour and make a mockery of the pre-match markets that made Russia strong favourites. I suspected that some of this favouritism was the result of patriotic punters in Russia itself. I though South Korea could easily win this game and I particularly thought that they would look a lot more likely to win in-play than their pre-match price of 4.8 suggested. So I started with a £20 win bet on SK at 4.8. After 15 minutes, South Korea were clearly the best team and Russia looked bewildered so I backed SK again – a further £10 at 5.3. At half-time I could only see one team scoring and winning and that was SK. For once, I listened to the pundits at half-time. They seemed to agree with me. I looked at the market and SK were now trading, at HT at 5.6 so I made a big play and backed them; a further £100 at 5.6. I now had £130 riding on a SK win. On 68 minutes, SK went ahead. I stood to win around £700. However, I decided to green up and laid SK (£457.38 at 1.54). Just six minutes after the SK goal, Russia equalised and my profits would have gone. Instead I made my biggest profit of the world cup. Outcome; Profit £327.38

Australia v Holland 18th June 2014 Result 2-3
I still don’t know how I messed this up because, as with the Brazil v Mexico game, my opening proposition; Holland will Win – proved correct. I backed Holland – £50 at 1.61 – pre-match expecting them to win comfortably. However, after 54 minutes, Australia were 2-1 up and playing brilliantly. As I had backed Holland rather than laying Australia, the draw was against me. I decided that action must be taken. I laid Holland to reduce the loss from the £50 one that I was facing. I laid £21 at 1.97 and £17 at 2.02. Very quickly, Holland equalised and then got a winner that was harsh on Australia. I had made the wrong decision in a 4 minute spell and it cost me a small loss. Frustrating. Outcome; Loss £7.21

Spain v Chile 18th June 2014 Result 0-2
I returned to profitable form the evening after the Australia v Holland game. I can state my pre-match thinking here because I texted it to a friend before the game kicked off. The text read; “Well, Chile toyed with England at Wembley recently, Chile beat Australia easily, Australia just gave Holland a hell of a game and Holland have just hammered Spain. So – it’s a Chile win.” And that is what happened. I opened by laying Spain £100 at 1.63 and cashed out by backing Spain later in the game (£59.48 at 2.74) giving me a greened-up £40.52 profit. Outcome; Profit £40.52

Cameroon v Croatia 18th June 2014 Result 0-4
I can’t recall much about this game. I do know that I got it wrong because I laid Croatia at 1.69 pre-match for £25. There is talk in the press that this game may have been fixed. Outcome; Loss £17.25

Colombia v Ivory Coast 19th June 2014 Result 2-1
This is a significant game because although I made only a very small profit, it is the first game where I called it wrong but still made money. I had seen Colombia beat Greece 3-0 but judged Greece to be weak opposition. I had seen Ivory Coast beat Japan in what I thought was a game of decent quality. I thought Drogba and Co would come on strong in match 2 so I laid Colombia (who I believed to be under-priced) at 2.08 / £50. On the hour, it was nil-nil and I took stock. I had no idea which way this game was going and I thought either team likely to pinch a winner. Colombia had drifted to 2.48 so I laid them for £41.93 and greened up for a profit of £8.06. When Colombia won 2-1 I felt pretty good about that eight quid – especially as I had escaped a £50 loss too. The penny was beginning to drop. Outcome; Profit £8.06

England v Uruguay 19th June 2014 Result 1-2
From the sublime to the ridiculous. This game provided a warning about how ‘bet what you know’ can quickly evolve into mindless loyalty punting. However, there was logic behind my initial play. I had been fooled by two things; I thought England’s enterprising performance against Italy would have been enough to beat a ponderous Uruguay who had surrendered meekly in their opening game v Costa Rica. Despite the desperate need for a goal, the Uruguayans had not used Luis Suarez at all in that game. I was convinced that he would not play more than an hour and that he would be unfit and unable to influence the game. I felt sure of my opening proposition; ‘Uruguay will not win”. For some reason I went an extra step and, rather than laying Uruguay, I backed England. I am sure that, had England not been involved, I would have laid Uruguay and traded out for a profit at 1-1 late in the game. Suarez scored after 39 minutes and there was nothing I could do except wait. Our prayers were answered when Rooney equalised on 75 minutes and I should have immediately traded out to minimise the loss. I could have reduced it by half or more at that point. But England were doing all the attacking and I was caught up in the moment. I let the bet ride. Suarez did the rest and a ton went down the pan. Lesson learned. This wasn’t the last time that Uruguay would cost me money. Outcome; Loss £100

Japan v Greece 19th June 2014 Result 0-0
This is another game that dims in the memory. However I had been (wrongly) impressed by Japan in their game v Ivory Coast. That game had finished around 3am and I clearly was not concentrating. However, my confident pre-match proposal that “Greece will not beat Japan” worked out OK as I laid Greece for £40 at 3.4
I can’t remember much more about this game – other than a Greek red card in the first half but I collected the entire £40.
Outcome; Profit £40

Italv v Costa Rica 20th June 2014 Result 1-2
After England lost to Uruguay I decided that Costa Rica were the best team in the group and that England were doomed. I remember tweeting “Costa Rica will prove that they are the best team in the group tonight”. I decided that England’s positive performance against Italy could only mean one thing; Italy were rubbish! So I laid Italy here £100 at 1.6. However, I didn’t see it through (I should have). Again, I think I lost confidence because the bet was too big. At some stage in the first half, with Italy attacking, I lost my nerve and greened up. I placed an £87.43 bet on Italy at 1.83 to take a profit. A chance missed. Outcome; Profit £12.57

Switzerland v France 20th June 2014 Result 2-5
Despite ordinary opposition I had been extremely impressed with France in their first game. In fact I had backed them after that game in the outright market. My opening proposition here was “France will win”. So I backed France – £50 at 1.92. It was never in doubt though I later greened up (laid France £87.27 at 1.1) before the late flurry of goals.
Outcome; Profit £37.27

Honduras v Ecuador 20th June 2014 Result 2-1
I played the Red Card market again here but the referees were, by this time, ignoring everything up to and including GBH. No return on that bet. I had Laid “No” in the Red Card market as before (£45) which lost me £20.70. However, I did better on the match-odds market. My starting proposition was that this game would be much closer than the odds suggested (Ecuador were heavy favourites) and I wanted to trade on that assumption. My opening play was, therefore, to lay Ecuador at 1.67 for £20 and I then laid them again at 1.63 for £10. I needed the game to be close and for Ecuador to fail to take the lead. My first target was 0-0 at HT. This is a strategy I have employed in some other games below. It’s a trade on the hypothesis that “this game will be much closer than the odds suggest”. The play went beautifully as Honduras took the lead on 31 minutes. I was able to quickly cash out before Ecuador equalised 3 minutes later! This made me £14.51 but it was still a loss on the match, Outcome; Loss £6.19

 

Germany v Ghana 21st June 2014 Result 2-2
I decided that Germany were unproven as they had won easily against a shambolic and disorganised Portugal team. Conversely, Ghana had shown signs of quality in their first game against USA and I thought they would improve. I expected Germany to win but, at the prices, I had to be against them until they showed their true worth. I started by laying Germany (£40 at 1.38). After half an hour, at 0-0, I backed Ghana (£10 at 9.6) Germany took the lead, putting me in a hole. However, Ghana soon equalised and then went ahead. At 2-1 the book was green when I hit the button. Outcome; Profit £58.84
Nigeria v Bosnia 21st June 2014 Result 1-0

This is a game where I realised that my opening position may be wrong and changed my mind. I initially backed Bosnia, hours pre-match; £20 at 1.97. However, as kick off approached, I reversed my position and laid Bosnia £70.30 at 1.94. Why? After Iran had run Argentina so close in the game immediately before this one I re-assessed my opinion of the first 2 games in this group. I decided that Bosnia had been flattered by losing 2-1 against a misfiring Argentina and that Nigeria had done rather well to hold Iran to nil nil. Essentially I changed my mind about who were going to be the best teams in this group and I ruled out Bosnia. Once I decided that “Bosnia will not qualify” there was no way I could be with them in this match. It was a complex thought process but it worked out pretty well. Late in the game I backed Bosnia again £18.71 at 5.2 to cover my position. Outcome; Profit £31.59

Belgium v Russia 22nd June 2014 Result 1-0
It was back to simple thinking here. My opening position was “Russia cannot win”. I was deeply unimpressed by Russia in their opening match. I placed a lay bet on Russia (£50 at 4.1) risking £200. I was glad I had laid Russia rather than backing Belgium as it took 88 minutes until Belgium got the goal. There would have been many ways of making money out of this game.
Outcome; Profit £50

Algeria v South Korea 22nd June 2014 Result 2-4
My good run was about to crash on to the rocks. After the early group games I was of the opinion (wrongly) that South Korea were better than Algeria. I thought Algeria were all athleticism and low quality. I laid Algeria (£20 at 3.15 and £20 at 3.2). If that wasn’t enough, I laid Algeria again (£100 at 1.07) after they scored as I was convinced that this was an opportunity and that SK would hit back to at least draw. Algeria went 2-0 up on 28 minutes and I was in a hole. I opted for a high-risk gambit to try and claw-back some dough. I laid the 2-0 half-time score at 1.38 and, thankfully, Algeria scored a third before half time, securing me £50. My match-odds bets were doomed though and I ended the game well down. Outcome; Loss £55.92

USA v Portugal 22nd June 2014 Result 2-2
I was strongly of the opinion that Portugal would not beat an organised and determined USA side. Portugal had shown nothing to attract backers in my opinion and yet were strong favourites. I thought they were vulnerable here. My opening position was “USA will not lose”. I laid Portugal pre-match (£100 at 1.86) then, early in the game after Portugal scored, I laid them again (£20 at 1.26). USA then went 2-1 ahead and I was sitting pretty. My profit was eroded by an injury time equaliser and I cashed out in the dying seconds with Portugal peppering the USA goal!.
Outcome; Profit £38.14

Holland v Chile 23rd June 2014 Result 2-0
I couldn’t split these two so, by way of experiment, I decided to back the draw and trade around that. I backed the draw at 3.6 (£20) pre-match. It was a pretty dull trade as I cashed out when it was nil-nil on the hour (£39.13 at 1.84).
Outcome; Profit £19.13

Australia v Spain 23rd June 2014 Result 0-3
I got this one wrong. Both teams were out but I thought Australia might power to a win over a shattered Spanish team. Also I was not aware that Cahill was missing the game until I had backed Australia (£20 at 8) and laid Spain (£35 at 1.48).
Outcome; Loss £36.80

Croatia v Mexico 23rd June 2014 Result 1-3
Mexico had impressed me greatly and Croatia had looked ineffectual despite demolishing Cameroon. I thought Mexico were potential world cup winners and Croatia were not. In that case it was a simple decision to lay Croatia (£50 at 2.84). I cashed out late in the game. Outcome; Profit £44.32

Cameroon v Brazil 23rd June 2014 Result 1-4
I made a lazy decision here to lay Brazil. I thought that they would win but I thought it had to be a closer game than the 1.17 price about them. Ideally I wanted Cameroon to hold out until half time or take the lead. In the event, I laid Brazil (£100) and they took the lead on 17 minutes. Cameroon actually equalized on 26 minutes and I should have traded out then but the price I had laid at was so low that I was prepared to risk it. Brazil were 2-1 up before half time and that was that. Outcome; Loss £17

 Costa Rica v England 24th June 2014 Result 0-0
I thought England couldn’t win and Costa Rica would probably win given England’s selections in defence. The prices were wildly against these propositions so I had to get involved. I backed CR (£10 at 4.5) and Laid England (£50 at 1.88). I would have made a tidy profit if I had let that go but I became nervous that there may be an England goal late in the game and cashed out. Outcome; Profit £7.45

 Italy v Uruguay 24th June 2014 Result 0-1
The dreaded Uruguay did me again and gave me my biggest loss of the tournament so far. I thought that both of these teams were very poor but I was pretty confident that Italy could get at least a draw. My opening proposition was; ‘Uruguay will not win’. To be honest, I don’t know why I felt so strongly or why I made such a big bet as I was saying “will not” rather than “can not”. Anyway I laid Uruguay £75 at 3.05 for a liability of £153.75. If I am honest I was losing my focus with the simultaneous matches being played at this stage of the tournament. I was flicking channels and trying to protect my £50 in the England game. I should have traded out of the Uruguay game soon after the hour but I must have seen Italy attacking when I surfed in! Uruguay scored on 81 minutes and that was me sunk. Outcome; Loss £153.75

 Japan v Colombia 24th June 2014 Result 1-4
My poor run continued here. I had spent the tournament over-estimating Japan and under-estimating Colombia. When they met there could only be one outcome – a loss! I Backed Japan (£25 at 4.1) as I thought they were over-priced and would make a game of it. They didn’t. Outcome; Loss £25

Greece v Ivory Coast 24th June 2014 Result 2-1
It was a return to form thanks to Gorgeous George Samaras. I had changed my opinion of Greece after their spirited second game and I thought they could beat the Ivorians. This position was almost certainly due to my over-estimation of Japan and under-estimation of Colombia (they were playing each other at the same time) but it worked a treat. I backed Greece (£25 at 4.1) and was feeling good when they scored on 42 mins then sweating when IC equalised. Then up popped Samaras with an injury time penalty. Happy days. Outcome; Profit £75.55

 Bosnia v Iran 25th June 2014 Result 3-1
This was my worst simple mis-read of the tournament. I had actually been very impressed with Bosnia in their first game but my opinions had switched and I thought Iran, after their superb performance against Argentina, could turn a listless Bosnia over. I was very wrong. I laid Bosnia for a painful £75 at 2.29 and was powerless as the game unfolded. Outcome; Loss £96.75

Algeria v Russia 26th June 2014 Result 1-1
I went into this game extremely confident that the Algerians would have too much power and pace for the Russians and that they would beat them through sheer athleticism. I didn’t think the Russians were equipped to cope. In the event my assumption proved right although Russia gave as good as they got in the first half hour. Initially I laid Russia at 2.2 for £50 and backed Algeria at 3.6 for £20. Russia started brightly and scored after 5 minutes but I was convinced they could not win and laid them at that point; £100 at 1.33. Algeria equalised on the hour and, although they looked likely winners I cashed out for a profit. Outcome; Profit £85.35

South Korea v Belgium 26th June 2014 Result 0-1
I had finally given up on SK and was of the opinion that the only possible result was a Belgium win. However, the price of Belgium was so short that I thought the market had to level up somewhat in running if SK could survive half an hour. So I backed SK pre-match; £15 at 4.7. It took Belgium over three quarters of the match to get a winner. I cashed out on the hour, laying SK; £24.82 at 2.84 for a small profit.
Outcome; Profit £9.82

That seems a good place to end this blog entry. The South Korea v Belgium game was a watershed because it’s a further step forwards. Essentially I was able to decide what the outcome of the match would be and to get it right. However I backed the polar opposite in order to make money. This is very interesting.

I will bring this list up to date in my next entry. Please feel free to comment either here or on twitter (@elTav).

I have added up the pluses and minuses and, after the 32 games above, I was £482.21 ahead. Interesting I’m sure you will agree.

Driving up from the Wirral on the Monday and the sky is cross with Liverpool.  It glowers, snubs and shuns it with drizzle and negativity.  Liverpool is in the dog-house. The mood peaks and troughs. It crescendos with savage showers over Sefton before, finally, a tumultuous soaking at Lancaster. It pours down on the county town. The gloom and wet put the headlights and brake-lights on.

Then,  a few miles north and it is Summer. The pleasure-drive stretch of the M6  contradicts the motorway’s mucky name and is uplifting. Sunshine. Hills becoming mountains as a big-sky North comes into view.  Off at Carlisle and a single satnav u-turn before finding the hotel. It is oddly placed up a winding driveway and plonked in the car park of a large NHS office block. It is ordinary and it is hot. But it’s OK. A luke-warm shower and a shave to smarten up for the track,  then a taxi.

It’s a nice feeling picking up the Owner’s badge. I guess that’s partly why we do it. The nice feeling. OntoAWinner Chris is downing dinner. It’s pie and peas in the Owners Bar. Complimentary. Chris is a real nice guy and make us feel welcome and involved. Ours, a 2yo filly, debuts in race 2. No luck with the bookies in the first but then we’re in the paddock, straining to hear what the trainer’s thinking.

Shaking the jockey’s hand. This is the third jockey’s hand I’ve shaken and all were very soft. Must be a technique, a tactic. It may be a coincidence – my sample is small. I shook the old Queen Mother’s hand once. It felt the same.
Nice guy, good jockey. There are no great expectations of our horse in her first run. It’s a schooling. I hear the trainer mutter a fancy, just loud enough for me to hear, trainer-style. That one wins and doubles our enjoyment of the race as we are quids in. Our horse is rousted as she learns the ropes. She will come on for today.

Four more races and a winner in the last, It’s all a pretty magical experience. The other guys who own a piece are interesting, kindly and unpretentious. It feels like my friend and I are the only ones backing horses – so these other chaps are pretty smart too. The Owners Bar is down-to-earth. We feel comfortable.

Carlisle town-centre on a Monday night is quiet. Wetherspoons pints and dry-roasted murmurings. Later, at the takeaway, we ask the woman about a taxi. She is about sixty and is missing London and family. I wonder why they moved to Carlisle but her English doesn’t come easy and I’ll never know. Her syllables are pre-thought and hard fought. Her eyes twinkle. She is a nice lady. Her husband speaks almost no English. He waits for us to eat and then drives us to the hotel himself. Leaves a real nice taste in the mouth. Turkish hospitality, Cumbria style.

The plan was to go home on Tuesday but there’s racing at Ripon and sunshine in the forecast. Am at a loose end so I point it south east. Route 66 over the tops delivers the goods. An ear-popping emerald upland landscape. A Great Grey Shrike flies overhead near Appleby. It’s the first tick for that one in my book. Road-signs say it’s the travellers fair on the weekend. Beyond the Appleby turn off there are horse-drawn caravans clopping the other way. I slow, on my side, so I don’t alarm the horses. I smile at the driver. He doesn’t smile back. The one behind is towing a wooden flat-bed trailer with 2 children aboard. It looks a simple life. There are only 3 or 4 of these caravans but they are enough to cause a tail back half the way to Scotch Corner. I’m glad I’m going the other way.

Parking up at Ripon you can see that it’s posh. I sit in the car and wonder whether to stay in shorts or change to last-night’s strides? I opt for the scruffy look and feel conspicuous going in. Lots of tweed and well-to-do Yorkshire folk. Two people mention my shorts in the first ten minutes but no more after that. It’s a lovely course. Lots of lawn and sunny spaces. Wooden benches and chips cooked in dripping. Bandstand and grandstand and smiles. I walk by the Owners Bar. An upstairs terrace allows them to look down on me.

A winner in the first sets me up and then I paddock-pick the winner in the big race. “Get him up James, Get him up James, GET HIM UP JIMMY!”. King Torus, 14-1 and ridden to perfection. What a win. I can’t help but notice that I was the only one cheering him home. Heads turn. They think me a shrewdie. I let them think it. It’s a nice feeling.